<<<<< JOB DESTRUCTION NEWSLETTER  No. 1941 -- 11/23/2008 >>>>>

A new idiotorial by Geoff Epstein was published (see below) that's so full
of flaws I can't deal with all of them in one newsletter, so I'll discuss
the stupidest and most annoying one:

   The U.S. will have a shortage of more than 500,000 engineers,
   scientists and other technically trained workers by 2010.
  (Congressional Task Force Study, 2006)

He never referenced the study. I have seen this used so many times in the
past I take it for granted that there is an obscure government study making
such claims. The government studies I have seen all say there are no
shortages, so I was just suspicious enough to spend some time googling to
find the study. Surely a study that declared a shortage of 500,000 STEMS
would be easy to find, right?

NOTE: STEM is an acronym for Science, Technology, Engineering and
Mathematics workers

I found lots of articles, studies, editorials, etc. that uses the same
statistic but not a single one of them has a reference to the
"Congressional Task Force Study". I assumed that I must be overlooking
something very obvious so I contacted Dr. Norman Matloff to see if he knew
of a study like that. He too has seen it many times but didn't know what
the source for that statistic is.

I never found an actual congressional study with that 500,000 number.
Somebody out there, please help Norm and I out! You can go to the search
engines and look for pages with: "500,000" shortage engineers OR knowledge
2010. If you find the study please contact one of us.

I decided to sort through some of those choice nuggets of knowledge to see
if it was possible to figure out the origin of the 500,000 shortage myth.


<> Shortage shouting from Europe <>

You will see lots of articles saying that a study was done that Europe will
have a shortage of 500,000 STEMS by 2010. Sometimes the number is far
higher. I haven't actually read the study because I can't find it, but
supposedly a think tank or government entity somewhere in the EU said this
in 2003.

Could this be the origin of the 500,000 number?

http://ec.europa.eu/research/fp6/mariecurie-actions/news/headline14_en.html

   27 March 2003 - Europe needs an extra 500,000 researchers if it is
   to meet the goal set by EU leaders of boosting R&D spending to 3%
   of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to European Research
   Commissioner, Philippe Busquin.

Since that 2003 article the 500,000 number continues to be very popular in
European articles that deal with immigration or work issues. Take this for
example:

   http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=a.e6P0YDpWOY&refe
r=uk

   The U.K. is trying to reduce the inflow of immigrants after the
   arrival of more than 500,000 annually for the past five years.
   The record numbers since the Labour government took office 11
   years ago have put a strain on schools, police and hospitals.


<> Shortage shouting from Romania <>

Romania doesn't seem like a large enough nation to have big shortages of
STEMS, but guess how many engineers they are short? Answer: 500,000!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/12/05/do05
06.xml

   We need more engineers, mechanics and bricklayers," Mr Vosganian
   said. "We have a labour deficit of 500,000 employees."
   05/12/2007


<> Shortage shouting from China <>

China also has a shortage of 500,000 engineers. The way China figures, if
India has 500,000 engineers then China needs that many too.

http://pdf.aigroup.asn.au/events/2008/PIR2008/Paul_Duckett_PIR_May08.pdf

   Both of the Asian "super tigers", China and India are projecting
   skills shortages. As an example, Shanghai is projecting a shortage
   of 500,000 skilled technicians over the next 5 years.
   (Schu.com 8 March 2006)


<> Shortage shouting from India <>

A consortium of over 1200 Indian high-tech companies called NASSCOM, and
the consulting firm McKinsey and Co, did a study on 12/05 that claimed
India's IT industry will face a shortfall of around 500,000 skilled workers
by 2010. The claim appears in many places throughout the internet. Here is
an example on the CIO website:

http://www.cio-weblog.com/50226711/nasscom_mckinsey_report_excerpts.php
   But the greatest challenge staring the software services exports in
   the face is skill shortage. The country will face a shortage of
   500,000 knowledge workers by 2010.
   December 13, 2005

So, I decided to go to the NASSCOM site to see exactly what they said.

http://www.nasscom.in/Nasscom/templates/LandingPage.aspx?id=28350

   Findings of the NASSCOM-McKinsey Report 2005 indicate that, while
   more than three million students graduate from Indian colleges
   and the nation produces 500,000 engineers annually, only a very
   small percentage are directly employable by the industry.

Be sure to read those two again, because they contradict each other!

NASSCOM said that India graduates 500,000 engineers every year but most of
them are not employable. In other words they have diplomas that are pure
trash. So, if India graduates that many engineers, but their diplomas are
dubious, there is an assumption that India has a shortage of 500,000
engineers. Perhaps they came up with that number by reading EU websites
that claimed shortages, and then the Indians figured that if they could
produce 500,000 engineers that could fake their way through interviews they
could get jobs in Europe. Of course Europe hasn't been very cooperative
with India because they haven't been able to agree on the Blue Card, which
is the European equivalent to the H-1B visa.

So, India probably then figured that since hundreds of articles in the U.S.
claimed there was a shortage of 500,000 STEMS they could dump their
engineers into the U.S. That didn't quite work out either since Congress
hasn't been able to change H-1B into an unlimited visa.

As I figure it, India has produced 500,000 unemployable STEMS a year since
the NASSCOM study in 2005, so they have over 2 million excess grads that
are unemployable that India wants to dump into the U.S. I hope my quote
gets copied and pasted into hundreds of articles so that it too can become
part of the global mythology. If it happens, remember that the myth started
in November of 2008 when I published this newsletter.


<> Shortage shouting in the U.S. <>

By 2006 the myth of the shortage of 500,000 STEMS had propagated throughout
the entire world. It has been especially popular on college websites, who
have an obvious interest in promoting the myth. This is an example from
2007:

http://www.virginia.edu/uvatoday/newsRelease.php?id=2373

   Studies show that the United States will have a shortage of more
   than 500,000 engineers and scientists by 2010.

It's important to note the title of the article:

   Summer Science Camp Brings Former NASA Astronaut and Program
   Founder to U.Va.

The number 500,000 isn't reserved just for STEMS. I see a pattern of it
being used by any profession affected by H-1B. Check this one out:

http://www.upi.com/Health_News/2008/03/28/Patients_should_prepare_for_fewer_
nurses/UPI-15601206739860/

   Patients should brace for a severe shortage of nurses, which could
   reach 500,000 by 2025, U.S. health researchers said.

At least that warning of a shortage of nurses wasn't a straight copy and
paste -- they changed the date from 2010 to 2025. LOL!


Rachel Konrad writes some hideous articles about H-1B. In 2004 she wrote
that we have a shortage of poll workers. Can you guess the shortage number
of poll workers we need before you read this quote?

http://lmtonline.com/news/archive/110104/pagea11.pdf

   A shortage of at least 500,000 poll workers nationwide
   means many voters could face long lines, cranky
   volunteers, polling places that don’t open or close on
   schedule and the chance that results won’t be known
   until long after the polls are closed.

Folks, I think I could write an entire book on how many job categories
throughout the world have shortages of 500,000 people, but this newsletter
is already getting too long. I couldn't resist one last example since we
often hear so much about H-1B school teachers. I'll include the title which
is adds to the absurdity of it all.

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?Site=TO&Date=20020414&C
ategory=ART16&ArtNo=104130056&Ref=AR

   Careers dominated by women see shortages
   New approaches needed to finding nurses, librarians,
   teachers

   Various estimates show a shortage of 500,000 to 2.2 million
   teachers over the next decade. The shortage is especially
   acute in urban schools and in certain fields, such as math,
   science, special education and bilingual education.


OK, I think I got this thing figured out now.


It appears that many writers like Geoff Epstein (see below) merely copy and
paste that 500,000 number from previous articles so the myth continues to
propagate. He probably assumed that NASA and NASSCOM are the same thing,
which might explain why he thought the number was made up by the
government. His worst mistake was to copy text without checking to see if a
study was really done. Considering Epstein is involved in educating our
kids you would think that he would take a more academic approach to his
research, but NO! Not even our deteriorating economy with mass layoffs from
high-tech companies was enough to cause him a moment of doubt that 500,000
STEM jobs are waiting to be filled.

Epstein's op-ed will probably inspire a new round of copy cats that claim
that the U.S. has a shortage of 500,000 stems. It's just a matter of time
before we start seeing them in more newspapers.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://www.wickedlocal.com/newton/news/lifestyle/columnists/x541355252

Epstein: Getting STEM into the Newton conversation
By Guest Column / Geoff Epstein
Tue Nov 18, 2008, 11:32 AM EST

Newton - STEM is a priority in national conversations. STEM is a priority
in state conversations. But STEM is having trouble getting airtime in
Newton’s local government conversations.

STEM stands for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics and
embraces the disciplines of architecture, engineering, computers,
mathematics, life sciences, physical sciences, social science, health care
and technical skills.

You will hear it discussed by Newton parents, many of whom are STEM
professionals. But you won’t find STEM on the School Committee agenda or
in the Newton Public Schools system-wide goals and it’s unlikely to make
the list of FY10 NPS spending priorities.

STEM is vital to our way of life. It’s the foundation of our economic
leadership and our national defense. If we are strong in STEM, we protect
our future and the future of our children.

From a national perspective, STEM is a priority because:

"The U.S. will have a shortage of more than 500,000 engineers, scientists
and other technically trained workers by 2010." (Congressional Task Force
Study, 2006)

"in the next 18 months, 27 percent of the engineering workforce will be
eligible for retirement." ("Double Decline’ Forecast for U.S. Engineers,"
Defense News, 2007)

"Jobs requiring math are increasing 4x faster than overall job growth"
(Program for International Student Assessment test, 2004)

From a Massachusetts perspective, STEM is a priority because:

· STEM jobs currently make up one-third of the state’s managerial,
professional and technical workforce.

· Of the 30 occupations expected to grow the fastest in Massachusetts
over the next decade, 20 are STEM occupations.

· Massachusetts has fallen behind in producing students who choose STEM
careers, ranking second to last out of 10 innovation economy competitor
states (North Carolina, Illinois, Minnesota, Virginia, California,
Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut).

To address the shortfall, Massachusetts has developed goals and a statewide
action plan to increase the number of students who participate in programs
that support careers in STEM. The goals include increasing the number of
qualified STEM teachers in the commonwealth and improving the STEM
educational offerings available in public and private schools.
(www.massachusetts.edu/umassstem)

In secondary education, STEM performance is measured by the percentage of
students taking the SAT who report that they are considering a STEM career.
Nationwide, the average is 26 percent. For Massachusetts, the average is
20.5 percent, so Massachusetts is currently aiming to match the national
average of 26 percent.

So with all of this national and state concern, how are we doing in Newton?

· Only 15 percent of Newton SAT test takers report they are considering a
STEM career, significantly below the state average of 20 percent and far
below the state target of 26 percent,

· Newton has no STEM action plan, unlike other school systems such as
Brookline (www.bhs21stcenturyfund.org/engineering-by-design)
(www.wickedlocal.com/brookline/archive/x1086970373)

· Mathematics education in Newton is perceived by many parents as
inadequate, with hundreds of NPS students receiving private tutoring for
both challenge and remediation.

· With current trends, a girl entering Newton Public Schools has almost
zero probability of becoming an engineer.

Based on this information, it seems entirely reasonable that we should have
some STEM concern in Newton.

On the plus side, we have a new STEM initiative: our rookie Newton FIRST
high school robotics team, championed by a local parent, supported by local
STEM employers, partially funded by a $12,000 stipend investment from the
NPS budget and enabled by enthusiastic teachers. A few percent of the high
school student population will benefit enormously.

But when looking at the big picture, one has to ask: "Why is Newton not
responding much more comprehensively to the national and state STEM calls
to action?"

The answer seems to be that we are suffering from local official "STEM
resistance." This manifests itself in arguments such as: we don’t want to
"channel" our students into STEM careers; we already offer many STEM
classes; our high school MCAS and SAT scores are high, demonstrating our
STEM excellence; the state 15 percent number for Newton is not sound.

But these arguments don’t ring true.
We are falling short in our mission to "inspire all students to achieve
their full potential."

We are not exposing our children in full measure to science, mathematics,
engineering and technology. We are not capitalizing on opportunities for
students to develop their technique and creativity in the solution of real
world problems that prepare them for a future that offers an increasing and
critical demand for skilled problem solvers.

So what should we do?
We should embrace STEM initiatives and the commonwealth’s plans, enlist
the full support of our local STEM employers and our many parents and
community members who work in STEM careers and build a program which will
provide all of our children the opportunity to become inspired and achieve
their full potential.

One small sign of progress would be to find the word STEM mentioned
somewhere in the upcoming NPS FY10 Budget Guidelines.

Geoff Epstein is the School Committee member from Ward 1. Margaret Albright
and Dan Proskauer co-authored this column with Epstein.


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