<<<<< JOB DESTRUCTION NEWSLETTER  No. 2036 -- 7/07/2009 >>>>>

Unemployment for electrical engineers continues to increase. The 8.6%
unemployment is bad enough, but the number is an underestimate because it
doesn't include EEs that are underemployed, or who found a job in a lower
paying non-engineering job. There is plenty of evidence that unemployment
statistics for engineers and computer/IT are error prone because these
individuals are usually more resourceful than the general population at
finding survival jobs. Dr. Robert Rivers once estimated that the total
number of surplus engineers is 3.3 times the official unemployment rate
which means that right now the real unemployment rate for EEs is about 25%.


This study is old in terms of the numbers, but the reason for the errors
hasn't changed:

http://www.aea.org/documents/newsletter/071999.htm
"NEVER A SHORTAGE, ALWAYS A SURPLUS", American Engineering Association
Manpower Bulletin Vol. 1, No. 2, July 1999


Patrick Thibodeau got in a good jab at IEEE in the last paragraph of his
new Computerworld article. His remark is a bit misleading though, because
the IEEE has criticized H-1B in the past while at the same time supporting
unlimited importation of foreign engineers with instant green cards visas.
They refuse to make any connection at all between EE unemployment and the
importation of foreign engineers.

It's interesting to note that there are still plenty of H-1B visas
available for fiscal year 2010. As many as 20,000 visas are up for grabs
that count towards the cap. It seems that companies aren't even hiring
H-1Bs!


http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f
6d1a/?vgnextoid=138b6138f898d010VgnVCM10000048f3d6a1RCRD

   As of July 3, 2009, approximately 45,000 H-1B cap-subject petitions
   and approximately 20,000 petitions qualifying for the advanced
   degree cap exemption had been filed. USCIS will continue to accept
   both cap-subject petitions and advanced degree petitions until a
   sufficient number of H-1B petitions have been received to reach the
   statutory limits, taking into account the fact that some of these
   petitions may be denied, revoked, or withdrawn.

Last year it took just a few days to give out all 65,000 visas, and in FY
2008 it took only a day. So far the stampede for visas that H-1B advocates
were predicting hasn't happened -- and yet corporations continue to claim
that the cap must be raised in order to avoid a national emergency.

So, is the slowdown in H-1B hiring good news or bad for American engineers?


In my opinion the trend doesn't bode well for American high tech workers
because they usually have to wait in the back of the line for jobs until
all of the H-1B visas are used up. If employers aren't hiring H-1Bs they
aren't hiring American engineers either. Last year high-tech workers
started to find job opportunities -- but only after the cap was reached. 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9135265/Electrical_engineers_see_job_
losses_at_record_levels?taxonomyId=1


Electrical engineers see job losses at record levels

IEEE-USA says engineering is a bellwether for recovery
Patrick Thibodeau


July 7, 2009 (Computerworld) WASHINGTON -- The unemployment rate for
electrical engineers reached 8.6% in the second quarter of this year, a
record-setting number and double the unemployment rate for the group in the
first quarter, according to the IEEE-USA.

The last time the unemployment rate of electrical engineers was anything
close to this year's second quarter level was in 2003 when it reached 6.2%.
By the following year, the unemployment rate for electrical engineers
dropped to 2.2% and continued falling until 2007, reaching 0.9%, its low.

The IEEE-USA, part of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Inc., believes engineering unemployment is a bellwether for the economy's
recovery and for job creation.

"These new data suggest we've got a long way to go as the United States
attempts to regain its economic footing," Gordon Day, the group's
president, said in a statement. Approximately 29,000 electrical engineers
were unemployed in the April-June quarter; in the first three months of
2009, that number was 13,000.

"We're surprised by the size of the jump in the unemployment rate and have
no basis to predict where it will go from here," said Day.

For all engineers, the IEEE-USA said that the unemployment rate increased
from 3.9% in the first quarter to 5.5% in the second quarter. For computer
professionals, the unemployment rate remained at 5.4%.

During the last downturn, the IEEE-USA pointed to the use of H-1B visas as
one reason for the high 2003 unemployment rate.

The H-1B cap was set at 195,000 in fiscal year 2003, but it was reduced to
65,000 in 2004. When the unemployment rate fell, the engineering
association said the decline mirrored the reinstatement of the H-1B visa
cap "to its historic level of 65,000." But this time around, the IEEE-USA
isn't drawing a connection between engineering unemployment and the H-1B
visa program.

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